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Updated 1s agoPolymarket14 catalog outcomesOpen Kalshi10 catalog outcomesOpen Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗
Polymarket only · 5Kalshi only · 1
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Updated 1s agoPolymarket14 catalog outcomesOpen2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Volume $153.3KLiquidity $445.1KEnds Nov 4
Kalshi10 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $2.10MOpen interest $1.63MEnds Nov 3
Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗Market and outcome ids
Polymarket
Market: 2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-0-and-2-487
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-10-and-12-376
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-12-and-14-485
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-14-and-16-843
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-16-or-more-667
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-2-and-4-493
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-4-and-6-559
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-6-and-8-942
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-8-and-10-661
will-any-other-outcome-occur-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections
will-the-republican-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-0-and-2-952
will-the-republican-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-2-and-4-265
will-the-republican-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-between-4-and-6-752
will-the-republican-party-win-the-popular-vote-in-the-2026-us-house-of-representatives-midterm-elections-by-6-or-more-767
Kalshi
Market: KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B1
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B13
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B15
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B58
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B3
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B5
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B7
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B50
Compared outcomes
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Mid | Last | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.5% | 28.5% | 28.0% | +1.0 | |
| 22.5% | 22.5% | 22.0% | 0.0 | |
| 17.5% | 18.5% | 18.0% | −1.0 | |
| 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.9% | +0.5 | |
| 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | −0.3 | |
| 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | +0.6 | |
| 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | +1.1 | |
| 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | −0.3 | |
| 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | +1.3 |
Polymarket only · 5OtherRepublicans 0-2%Republicans 2-4%Republicans 4-6%Republicans 6%+
Kalshi only · 1Republicans win
Probability chart · Democrats 8-10%
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