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Updated 1s agoPolymarket2 catalog outcomesOpen Kalshi2 catalog outcomesOpen Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗
AR-04 House winner?
Updated 1s agoPolymarket2 catalog outcomesOpenAR-04 House Election Winner
Volume $24.3KLiquidity $36.5KEnds Nov 4
Kalshi2 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $4.9KOpen interest $3.4KEnds Nov 3
Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗Market and outcome ids
Polymarket
Market: ar-04-house-election-winner
will-the-republican-party-win-the-ar-04-house-seat
will-the-democratic-party-win-the-ar-04-house-seat
Kalshi
Market: KXHOUSERACE-AR04-26
KXHOUSERACE-AR04-26-R
KXHOUSERACE-AR04-26-D
Compared outcomes
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Mid | Last | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97.2% | 98.0% | 98.0% | −0.8 | |
| 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | −0.4 |
Probability chart · Bruce Westerman (R)
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