
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.7% | 79.5% | 79.0% | +8.2 | |
| 76.5% | 67.5% | 68.0% | +9.0 | |
| 63.0% | 50.5% | 51.0% | +12.5 | |
| 30.5% | 31.5% | 32.0% | −1.0 | |
| 7.5% | 9.5% | 9.0% | −2.0 |