
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84.0% | 62.5% | 53.0% | +21.5 | |
| 9.8% | 42.0% | 7.0% | −32.2 | |
| 5.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | +4.0 | |
| 4.4% | 1.0% | 2.0% | +3.4 | |
| 1.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% | −2.2 | |
| 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | +0.4 |