
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | 64.0% | 78.0% | +11.0 | |
| 7.2% | 9.0% | 19.0% | −1.8 | |
| 4.0% | 2.0% | 7.0% | +2.0 | |
| 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | −0.6 | |
| 0.6% | 12.0% | 1.0% | −11.4 | |
| 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | −1.6 |