
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98.5% | 92.5% | 91.0% | +6.0 | |
| 1.5% | 44.5% | 71.0% | −43.0 | |
| 1.4% | 26.0% | 81.0% | −24.6 | |
| 1.3% | 3.0% | 6.0% | −1.7 | |
| 0.7% | 12.5% | 5.0% | −11.8 | |
| 0.3% | 48.5% | 5.0% | −48.2 | |
| 0.1% | 12.5% | 1.0% | −12.4 |