
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.5% | 45.0% | 44.0% | +3.5 | |
| 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | −0.5 | |
| 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | −0.5 | |
| 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | −0.5 |