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Updated 1s agoPolymarket2 catalog outcomesOpen Kalshi2 catalog outcomesOpen Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗
CA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)
Updated 1s agoPolymarket2 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $11.3KLiquidity $60.7KEnds Nov 4
Kalshi2 catalog outcomesOpenCA-40 House winner?
Volume $12.4KOpen interest $8.4KEnds Nov 3
Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗Market and outcome ids
Polymarket
Market: ca-40-house-election-winner-individual-20260710020901480
will-ken-calvert-win-the-ca-40-house-seat-20260708145004620
will-young-kim-win-the-ca-40-house-seat-20260708145004621
Kalshi
Market: KXCAELECTION-2640
KXCAELECTION-2640-KCAL
KXCAELECTION-2640-YKIM
Compared outcomes
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Mid | Last | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.5% | 61.5% | 63.0% | −4.0 | |
| 39.0% | 38.0% | 39.0% | +1.0 |
Probability chart · Ken Calvert
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