
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | 90.5% | 91.0% | +1.5 | |
| 92.0% | 80.5% | 80.0% | +11.5 | |
| 84.0% | 69.5% | 70.0% | +14.5 | |
| 53.5% | 49.5% | 50.0% | +4.0 | |
| 14.5% | 16.5% | 16.0% | −2.0 |