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Updated 1s agoPolymarket13 catalog outcomesOpen Kalshi5 catalog outcomesOpen Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗
Polymarket only · 12Kalshi only · 4
Fed rate cut by __?
Updated 1s agoPolymarket13 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $3.75MLiquidity $240.7KEnds Jan 29
Kalshi5 catalog outcomesOpenNext Fed rate cut?
Volume $1.0KOpen interest $945Ends Jan 1
Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗Market and outcome ids
Polymarket
Market: fed-rate-cut-by-629
fed-rate-cut-by-april-2027-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-april-2026-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-december-2026-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-january-2027-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-january-2026-meeting-412
fed-rate-cut-by-july-2027-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-july-2026-meeting-577
fed-rate-cut-by-june-2027-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-june-2026-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-march-2027-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-march-2026-meeting
fed-rate-cut-by-october-2026-meeting-199-747
fed-rate-cut-by-september-2026-meeting-264-382
Kalshi
Market: KXFEDCUT-31DEC28
KXFEDCUT-31DEC28-31DEC26
KXFEDCUT-31DEC28-31DEC27
KXFEDCUT-31DEC28-31DEC28
KXFEDCUT-31DEC28-30JUN27
KXFEDCUT-31DEC28-30JUN28
Compared outcomes
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Mid | Last | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | 21.5% | 24.0% | +31.5 |
Polymarket only · 12April 2027 MeetingApril MeetingDecember 2026 MeetingJanuary 2027 MeetingJanuary MeetingJuly MeetingJune 2027 MeetingJune Meeting
Kalshi only · 4Before 2027Before 2028Before 2029Before July 2028
Probability chart · July 2027 Meeting
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