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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.0% | 70.5% | 70.0% | −6.5 | |
| 35.4% | 31.0% | 28.0% | +4.4 |