
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.5% | 51.5% | 47.0% | −2.0 | |
| 40.5% | 39.5% | 40.0% | +1.0 | |
| 5.5% | 3.5% | 6.0% | +2.1 | |
| 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | +0.5 |