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Updated 1s agoPolymarket13 catalog outcomesOpen Kalshi6 catalog outcomesOpen Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗
Polymarket only · 10Kalshi only · 3
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
Updated 1s agoPolymarket13 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $73.4KLiquidity $199.7KEnds Jan 1
Kalshi6 catalog outcomesOpenWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
Volume $1.6KOpen interest $1.4KEnds Aug 26
Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗Market and outcome ids
Polymarket
Market: next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028-before-2028
will-alice-weidel-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-boris-pistorius-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-carsten-linnemann-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-felix-banaszak-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-heidi-reichinnek-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-hendrik-wust-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-jens-spahn-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-katharina-droge-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-lars-klingbeil-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-markus-soder-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-there-be-no-next-german-chancellor-before-2028-before-2028
will-sahra-wagenknecht-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
will-tino-chrupalla-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028
Kalshi
Market: KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25
KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25-AWEI
KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25-BBAS
KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25-FBAN
KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25-FMER
KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25-LKLI
KXNEXTGERCHANC-29FEB25-NOON
Compared outcomes
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Mid | Last | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.4% | 15.5% | 16.0% | −12.2 | |
| 0.7% | 11.5% | 0.0% | −10.8 | |
| 0.1% | 8.5% | 12.0% | −8.3 |
Polymarket only · 10Boris PistoriusCarsten LinnemannHeidi ReichinnekHendrik WüstJens SpahnKatharina DrögeMarkus SöderNo Next Chancellor before 2028
Kalshi only · 3Baerbel BasFriedrich MerzNo one
Probability chart · Alice Weidel
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