
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | 97.0% | 94.0% | +2.0 | |
| 0.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | −1.5 | |
| 0.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | −1.7 | |
| 0.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | −1.8 | |
| 0.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | −1.8 | |
| 0.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | −1.8 | |
| 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | −1.8 | |
| 0.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | −1.4 |