
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.5% | 33.5% | 32.0% | −4.0 | |
| 20.7% | 11.0% | 14.0% | +9.7 | |
| 15.8% | 5.0% | 0.0% | +10.8 | |
| 4.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | −2.0 | |
| 2.9% | 1.0% | 2.0% | +1.9 | |
| 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | +1.0 | |
| 2.3% | 5.5% | 0.0% | −3.3 | |
| 0.7% | 5.0% | 0.0% | −4.3 | |
| 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | −0.5 | |
| 0.3% | 4.0% | 0.0% | −3.7 | |
| 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | −0.7 | |
| 0.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | −0.9 | |
| 0.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | −0.9 |