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Updated 1s agoPolymarket5 catalog outcomesOpen Kalshi5 catalog outcomesOpen Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗
Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner
Updated 1s agoPolymarket5 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $8.5KLiquidity $41.7KEnds Nov 10
Kalshi5 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $1.8KOpen interest $750Ends Nov 21
Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗Market and outcome ids
Polymarket
Market: ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election-winner
will-dylan-marando-win-the-2026-ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election
will-eric-lombardi-win-the-2026-ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election
will-lee-fairclough-win-the-2026-ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election
will-navdeep-bains-win-the-2026-ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election
will-stephanie-bowman-win-the-2026-ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election
Kalshi
Market: KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21
KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21-DMAR
KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21-ELOM
KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21-LFAI
KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21-NBAI
KXONTLIBLEAD-26NOV21-SBOW
Compared outcomes
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Mid | Last | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | 46.0% | 48.0% | 0.0 | |
| 44.0% | 37.0% | 35.0% | +7.0 | |
| 8.6% | 4.5% | 0.0% | +4.1 | |
| 2.9% | 11.5% | 7.0% | −8.6 | |
| 0.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% | −3.3 |
Probability chart · Lee Fairclough
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