Oscar Winner: Best Music (Original Score)

Compared outcomes

Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.

Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.

Outcome	Polymarket	Mid	Last	Gap
The Odyssey	49.5%	61.0%	51.0%	−11.5
Dune: Part Three	19.5%	23.0%	24.0%	−3.5
The Black Ball	7.5%	7.5%	4.0%	0.0
Disclosure Day	6.7%	10.5%	10.0%	−3.8
Project Hail Mary	6.5%	9.5%	15.0%	−3.0
Whalefall	3.4%	2.5%	0.0%	+0.9
The Adventures of Cliff Booth	2.6%	2.5%	5.0%	+0.1
Wild Horse Nine	1.6%	2.5%	0.0%	−0.9
The Mandalorian and Grogu	0.4%	2.5%	0.0%	−2.2
The Drama	0.3%	2.5%	4.0%	−2.3
Cry to Heaven	0.2%	2.5%	0.0%	−2.3
The Social Reckoning	0.2%	2.5%	0.0%	−2.3

Polymarket only · 27

Movie AMovie BMovie CMovie DMovie EMovie FMovie GMovie H+19 more

Kalshi only · 1

Tie