Oscar Winner: Best Original Screenplay

Compared outcomes

Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.

Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.

Outcome	Polymarket	Mid	Last	Gap
Wild Horse Nine	49.5%	58.5%	63.0%	−9.0
The Debut	21.4%	17.0%	20.0%	+4.5
Elsinore	10.3%	1.5%	6.0%	+8.8
Obsession	8.0%	7.0%	7.0%	+1.0
Digger	5.9%	11.0%	13.0%	−5.1
Fjord	4.0%	7.0%	6.0%	−3.0
The Drama	3.5%	1.5%	0.0%	+2.0
The Invite	3.2%	1.5%	3.0%	+1.7
Josephine	3.0%	1.5%	0.0%	+1.5
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma	2.7%	1.5%	3.0%	+1.2
The Odyssey	2.6%	1.0%	7.0%	+1.7
Club Kid	1.3%	2.0%	6.0%	−0.8
A Place in Hell	0.6%	1.5%	0.0%	−0.9
The Adventures of Cliff Booth	0.6%	1.5%	5.0%	−0.9
Forgotten Island	0.5%	1.5%	0.0%	−0.9
Fatherland	0.5%	1.5%	0.0%	−1.0
The Black Ball	0.4%	1.5%	3.0%	−1.1

Polymarket only · 27

Movie AMovie BMovie CMovie DMovie EMovie FMovie GMovie H+19 more

Kalshi only · 1

Tie