
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51.5% | 45.5% | 47.0% | +6.0 | |
| 33.0% | 27.0% | 26.0% | +6.0 | |
| 17.5% | 12.0% | 13.0% | +5.5 |