
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | 47.0% | 63.0% | +9.0 | |
| 22.5% | 16.5% | 23.0% | +6.0 | |
| 15.6% | 4.5% | 0.0% | +11.1 | |
| 4.9% | 5.0% | 0.0% | −0.1 | |
| 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.0% | +0.5 |