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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.5% | 81.5% | 81.0% | −1.0 | |
| 14.5% | 14.0% | 13.0% | +0.5 | |
| 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | −0.5 | |
| 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | −0.3 |