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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | +3.0 | |
| 36.5% | 37.0% | 39.0% | −0.5 | |
| 21.0% | 22.0% | 22.0% | −1.0 | |
| 0.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | −2.4 |