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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | 59.5% | 62.0% | −2.5 | |
| 24.5% | 26.0% | 26.0% | −1.5 | |
| 8.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 0.0 |