
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98.6% | 97.5% | 97.0% | +1.1 | |
| 95.5% | 96.5% | 97.0% | −1.0 | |
| 91.5% | 81.5% | 82.0% | +10.0 | |
| 72.0% | 50.5% | 50.0% | +21.5 | |
| 28.0% | 17.5% | 18.0% | +10.5 | |
| 6.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | +4.0 | |
| 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | +0.9 |