Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?

Updated 1s ago

Polymarket4 catalog outcomesOpen

Volume $13.2KLiquidity $51.3KEnds Nov 29

Kalshi4 catalog outcomesOpen

Which November Swiss referendums will pass?

Volume $703Open interest $640Ends Nov 29

Polymarket ↗

Kalshi ↗

Market and outcome ids

Polymarket

Market: switzerlands-november-referendum-what-will-pass-20260713145059520

will-the-popular-initiative-for-a-restriction-on-fireworks-be-approved-in-switzerlands-november-29-2026-popular-vote-copy-20260713145734571

will-the-popular-initiative-yes-to-fair-federal-taxation-for-married-couples-to-finally-put-an-end-to-marriage-discrimination-be-approved-in-switzerlands-november-29-2026-popular-vote-copy-copy-20260713145734572

will-the-federal-decree-of-19-june-2026-on-additional-funding-for-the-avs-through-an-increase-in-vat-be-approved-in-switzerlands-november-29-2026-popular-vote-20260713145734570

will-the-amendment-of-19-december-2025-to-the-federal-act-on-war-material-lfmg-be-approved-in-switzerlands-november-29-2026-popular-vote-copy-copy-copy-20260713145734573

Kalshi

Market: KXSWISSNOVREF-26NOV29

KXSWISSNOVREF-26NOV29-AHVVAT

KXSWISSNOVREF-26NOV29-MARRIAGETAX

KXSWISSNOVREF-26NOV29-FIREWORKS

KXSWISSNOVREF-26NOV29-WARACT

Compared outcomes

Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.

Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.

Outcome	Polymarket	Mid	Last	Gap
	18.0%	22.0%	26.0%	−4.0

Polymarket only · 3

Marriage taxation initiativeVAT federal decreeWar Material amendment

Kalshi only · 3

AHV VAT financingFair taxes for married couplesWar Materiel Act amendment

Probability chart · Fireworks restriction initiative

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