
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.7% | 79.5% | 86.0% | +13.2 | |
| 79.0% | 44.0% | 48.0% | +35.0 | |
| 48.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% | +37.0 | |
| 22.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | +20.5 |