
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66.0% | 62.0% | 61.0% | +4.0 | |
| 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.0% | −0.5 | |
| 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | −2.7 | |
| 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | −0.9 |