
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.5% | 44.0% | 42.0% | +4.5 | |
| 25.0% | 23.0% | 27.0% | +2.0 | |
| 11.0% | 13.5% | 21.0% | −2.5 | |
| 6.5% | 15.5% | 12.0% | −9.0 | |
| 1.8% | 3.0% | 0.0% | −1.2 | |
| 1.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% | −1.9 |