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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | +6.0 | |
| 50.0% | 49.5% | 66.0% | +0.5 | |
| 47.0% | 50.0% | 98.0% | −3.0 | |
| 42.0% | 49.0% | 40.0% | −7.0 | |
| 40.5% | 41.5% | 24.0% | −1.0 | |
| 37.5% | 45.0% | 52.0% | −7.5 | |
| 36.0% | 31.0% | 32.0% | +5.0 | |
| 28.0% | 29.5% | 38.0% | −1.5 | |
| 27.0% | 19.0% | 24.0% | +8.0 | |
| 24.5% | 50.0% | 55.0% | −25.5 | |
| 22.5% | 49.0% | 23.0% | −26.5 | |
| 18.5% | 17.5% | 30.0% | +1.0 | |
| 12.5% | 16.5% | 20.0% | −4.0 | |
| 8.0% | 4.0% | 8.0% | +4.0 | |
| 7.5% | 25.5% | 3.0% | −18.0 |