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Updated 1s agoPolymarket14 catalog outcomesOpen Kalshi12 catalog outcomesOpen Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗
Polymarket only · 4Kalshi only · 2
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Updated 1s agoPolymarket14 catalog outcomesOpenVolume $205.6KLiquidity $117.3KEnds Jan 1
Kalshi12 catalog outcomesOpenWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
Volume $405.7KOpen interest $149.5KEnds Jan 1
Polymarket ↗Kalshi ↗Market and outcome ids
Polymarket
Market: which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31
will-alibaba-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-amazon-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-baidu-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-bytedance-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-deepseek-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-google-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-meituan-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-meta-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-microsoft-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-mistral-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-moonshot-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-openai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-xai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
will-zai-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31-2026
Kalshi
Market: KXTOPAI-27
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-01A1
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ALIB
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-BAID
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-BYTE
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-DEPP
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-META
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-MIST
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-MOON
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-NVID
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-OPEN
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-XAI
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ZAI
Compared outcomes
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Mid | Last | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | +2.5 | |
| 9.5% | 13.5% | 11.0% | −4.0 | |
| 9.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | −2.0 | |
| 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | +0.5 | |
| 6.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | +3.0 | |
| 6.5% | 3.5% | 6.0% | +3.0 | |
| 5.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | +2.0 | |
| 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.0% | −0.5 | |
| 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | +0.2 | |
| 0.9% | 3.5% | 6.0% | −2.6 |
Polymarket only · 4AmazonGoogleMeituanMicrosoft
Kalshi only · 201A1Nvidia
Probability chart · Meta
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