
Which lists will win a Knesset seat?
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95.2% | 94.5% | 91.0% | +0.7 | |
| 88.5% | 86.0% | 86.0% | +2.5 | |
| 40.0% | 2.5% | 14.0% | +37.5 | |
| 6.5% | 8.5% | 4.0% | −2.0 |