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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.5% | 93.0% | 93.0% | −0.4 | |
| 7.1% | 8.5% | 5.0% | −1.4 |