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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.9% | 50.0% | 2.4% | −30.1 | |
| 19.5% | 18.5% | 20.0% | +1.0 | |
| 8.9% | 17.0% | 17.0% | −8.0 | |
| 0.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | −3.6 |