Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?

Compared outcomes

Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.

Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.

Outcome	Polymarket	Mid	Last	Gap
Marine Le Pen	42.5%	47.5%	48.0%	−4.9
Édouard Philippe	17.5%	18.5%	18.0%	−1.0
David Lisnard	13.8%	11.5%	12.0%	+2.3
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	12.5%	11.5%	11.0%	+1.0
François Hollande	5.1%	6.5%	7.0%	−1.4
Gabriel Attal	2.1%	2.4%	2.4%	−0.2
Bruno Retailleau	1.3%	1.4%	1.4%	−0.1
Sarah Knafo	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	−0.7
Éric Zemmour	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	+0.2
Jordan Bardella	0.7%	1.5%	1.6%	−0.9
Dominique de Villepin	0.5%	0.8%	0.9%	−0.2
Christine Lagarde	0.4%	1.5%	1.0%	−1.0
Sébastien Lecornu	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	−0.1
François Ruffin	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	−0.1
Jean Castex	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0
Olivier Faure	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0
Bernard Cazeneuve	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Carole Delga	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
François Bayrou	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Gérald Darmanin	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Laurent Wauquiez	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Manuel Bompard	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Mathilde Panot	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Michel Barnier	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Valérie Pécresse	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Xavier Bertrand	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	−0.1
Yaël Braun-Pivet	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Élisabeth Borne	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1

Polymarket only · 14

Clémence GuettéClémentine AutainFabien RousselFrançois AsselineauFrançois BaroinJuan BrancoKarim BouamraneLucie Castets+6 more

Kalshi only · 1

Bruno Le Maire