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Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | 61.5% | 58.0% | −13.5 | |
| 47.5% | 39.5% | 38.0% | +8.0 | |
| 28.5% | 12.5% | 9.0% | +16.0 | |
| 26.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | +23.5 |