
Alignment is from catalog labels only. Uneven lists stay unmatched rather than guessed.
Kalshi mid is the midpoint of the live buy and sell offers; last is the most recent trade price. The gap compares Polymarket to the Kalshi mid.
| Outcome | Gap | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | 97.5% | 98.0% | +0.6 | |
| 97.8% | 98.5% | 99.0% | −0.7 | |
| 97.8% | 98.5% | 98.0% | −0.7 | |
| 91.5% | 93.5% | 94.0% | −2.0 | |
| 80.0% | 81.5% | 81.0% | −1.5 | |
| 59.5% | 66.5% | 66.0% | −7.0 |