Selected outcome
October 23
wide spread 27–>99%
99%
October 23 · 99%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 23, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- githubstatus.com (opens in a new tab)
Price
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Markets
October 23GitHub.com critical incident by October 23, 2026?
99%
Open · $684 24h · $844 vol
wide spread 27–>99%
Bid 26.5¢ · Ask 99.8¢
Resolved
October 16GitHub.com critical incident by October 16, 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $290 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 23, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.