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Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

Open

Selected outcome

October 31

wide spread 77–89%

83%

October 31 · 83%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • October 31

    Moody's or S&P downgrades France by October 31, 2026?

    83%

    Open · $450 24h · $4,493 vol

    wide spread 77–89%

    Bid 77¢ · Ask 89¢

    Open full market view →
  • November 30

    Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?

    84%

    Open · $90 24h · $3,306 vol

    wide spread 78–89%

    Bid 78¢ · Ask 89¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$540
Volume
$7,799
Liquidity
$1,842
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Republic of France, at any point between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying downgrade by either agency is sufficient for this market to resolve "Yes." A downgrade by both agencies is not required. For purposes of this market, “long-term sovereign credit rating” means any of the following: S&P Global Ratings’ long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating or long-term local-currency sovereign credit rating on France; or Moody’s Ratings’ long-term issuer rating or senior unsecured rating on the Government of France. A lowering of any of these qualifies. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade), an affirmation of an existing rating, a withdrawal of a rating, or a change to a short-term rating will not qualify. Only a lowering of a long-term sovereign credit rating itself will qualify. Rating actions by any agency other than Moody's Ratings and S&P Global Ratings — including Fitch Ratings, Scope Ratings and DBRS Morningstar — will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings), together with the Agence France Trésor published ratings page (https://www.aft.gouv.fr/en/frances-credit-ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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