Selected outcome
<1.30ºC
No
<1.30ºC · No
- Scheduled end
- Nov 1, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- data.giss.nasa.gov (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
<1.30ºCWill global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $2,454 vol
1.30–1.34ºCWill global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in September 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $3,906 vol
1.35–1.39ºCWill global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in September 2026?
Yes
Settled · yes · $0 24h · $874 vol
1.40–1.44ºCWill global temperature increase by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in September 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $877 vol
1.45–1.49ºCWill global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in September 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,495 vol
>1.49ºCWill global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in September 2026?
No
Settled · no · $0 24h · $1,522 vol
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
Settled
- Scheduled end
- Nov 1, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.