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Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

Open

Selected outcome

December 31

17%

December 31 · 17%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • October 31

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,982 vol

    Bid 3¢ · Ask 3.9¢

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  • November 30

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026?

    7%

    Open · $0 24h · $3,472 vol

    Bid 6¢ · Ask 7¢

    Open full market view →
  • December 31

    Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?

    17%

    Open · $0 24h · $6,228 vol

    Bid 16¢ · Ask 18¢

    Open full market view →
Event statistics
24h vol
$0
Volume
$12k
Liquidity
$3,564
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Oct 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Kevin Warsh, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Kevin Warsh within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Kevin Warsh either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging Kevin Warsh in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Kevin Warsh will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

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