Selected outcome
↓ $15
wide spread 22–74%
49%
↓ $15 · 49%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- platform.claude.com (opens in a new tab)
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
↑ $50Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $50 in 2026?
3%
Open · $42 24h · $2,466 vol
Bid 0.3¢ · Ask 5¢
↑ $30Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $30 in 2026?
20%
Open · $0 24h · $3,507 vol
wide spread 12–66%
Bid 12¢ · Ask 66¢
↑ $25Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $25 in 2026?
31%
Open · $0 24h · $2,037 vol
wide spread 9–35%
Bid 9¢ · Ask 35¢
↓ $15Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $15 in 2026?
49%
Open · $0 24h · $1,204 vol
wide spread 22–74%
Bid 22¢ · Ask 74¢
↓ $10Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $10 in 2026?
No quote
Open · $0 24h · $2,240 vol
wide spread 8–20%
Bid 8¢ · Ask 20¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Opus model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's latest Claude Opus model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Opus, such as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5, that have a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge. Prices for batch, fast mode, cached, or US-only inference and other data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. A price qualifies only while the model is Anthropic's latest Claude Opus model as defined above, after market creation. The resolution source for this market will be Anthropic's official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing). Official announcements and archived copies of this page may be used to confirm prices and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.