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Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

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Selected outcome

Saudi Arabia

28%

Saudi Arabia · 28%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

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Markets

  • Russia

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Russia by December 31?

    5%

    Open · $479 24h · $22k vol

    Bid 4¢ · Ask 6¢

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  • China

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?

    6%

    Open · $580 24h · $12k vol

    Bid 5¢ · Ask 6¢

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  • Saudi Arabia

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?

    28%

    Open · $1,635 24h · $35k vol

    Bid 28¢ · Ask 29¢

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  • Iran

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Iran by December 31?

    3%

    Open · $0 24h · $9,110 vol

    Bid 2.1¢ · Ask 3.9¢

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  • Israel

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31?

    2%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,545 vol

    Bid 1.2¢ · Ask 2.9¢

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  • North Korea

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for North Korea by December 31?

    2%

    Open · $0 24h · $1,710 vol

    Bid 1¢ · Ask 3.8¢

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  • Google

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31?

    2%

    Open · $0 24h · $15k vol

    Bid 1¢ · Ask 2.4¢

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  • Meta

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Meta by December 31?

    5%

    Open · $1,384 24h · $16k vol

    Bid 4.9¢ · Ask 6¢

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  • Anthropic

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Anthropic by December 31?

    4%

    Open · $0 24h · $15k vol

    Bid 3.7¢ · Ask 4.4¢

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  • SpaceXAI / Elon Musk

    Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for SpaceXAI / Elon Musk by December 31?

    2%

    Open · $0 24h · $9,188 vol

    Bid 2¢ · Ask 2.9¢

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Event statistics
24h vol
$4,078
Volume
$135k
Liquidity
$192k
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.

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