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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

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Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

6%

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · 6%

Stored quote · checking the venue

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET

Price

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

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Markets

Event statistics
24h vol
$0
Volume
$351k
Liquidity
$1,138
Open int.
—

How this resolves

Scheduled end
Dec 31, 2026 ET
  1. Trading
  2. Closed
  3. In review
  4. Resolved
Rules text

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

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