Selected outcome
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · 2%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
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Markets
Open · $138k 24h · $45M vol
Bid 2.1¢ · Ask 2.2¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.