Selected outcome
December 31, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026 · 3%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
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Markets
December 31, 2027Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2028?
No quote
Open · $68 24h · $70 vol
wide spread 7–22%
Bid 7¢ · Ask 22¢
December 31, 2026Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
3%
Open · $252 24h · $64k vol
Bid 3¢ · Ask 3.9¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.