Selected outcome
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · 16%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Markets
Open · $128k 24h · $75M vol
Bid 15¢ · Ask 16¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.