Selected outcome
June 30, 2027
7%
June 30, 2027 · 7%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
Price
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Markets
December 31, 2026Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?
2%
Open · $840 24h · $32k vol
Bid 1.3¢ · Ask 1.8¢

Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Dec 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.