Selected outcome
<20
3%
<20 · 3%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- IMF PortWatch
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
<20Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
3%
Open · $0 24h · $9,358 vol
Bid 1¢ · Ask 4¢
20-24Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
10%
Open · $53 24h · $13k vol
Bid 9¢ · Ask 11¢
25-29Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
60%
Open · $100 24h · $19k vol
Bid 59¢ · Ask 61¢
30-34Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
25%
Open · $38 24h · $9,246 vol
Bid 24¢ · Ask 25¢
35+Will there be 35 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
1%
Open · $0 24h · $6,524 vol
Bid 0.2¢ · Ask 1.6¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Resolution source
- IMF PortWatch
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.