Selected outcome
December 31
15%
December 31 · 15%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
December 31Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
15%
Open · $6,379 24h · $1.8M vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 16¢
October 31Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
2%
Open · $24k 24h · $1.5M vol
Bid 1.5¢ · Ask 1.8¢
November 30Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?
8%
Open · $5,175 24h · $65k vol
Bid 7¢ · Ask 9¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
- Scheduled end
- Oct 31, 2026 ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.