Selected outcome
6.1 or more
24%
6.1 or more · 24%
Stored quote · checking the venue
- Scheduled end
- Oct 23, 2:00 PM ET
Price
Loading price history.
Markets
Under 5.3Will the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be under 5.3?
17%
Open · $376 24h · $496 vol
Bid 16¢ · Ask 17¢
5.3 to 5.4Will the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?
14%
Open · $76 24h · $166 vol
Bid 13¢ · Ask 14¢
5.5 to 5.6Will the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?
17%
Open · $57 24h · $147 vol
Bid 16¢ · Ask 17¢
5.7 to 5.8Will the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?
14%
Open · $76 24h · $166 vol
Bid 14¢ · Ask 15¢
5.9 to 6.0Will the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?
13%
Open · $70 24h · $160 vol
Bid 12¢ · Ask 13¢
6.1 or moreWill the biggest earthquake on October 22, 2026 be 6.1 or more?
24%
Open · $563 24h · $665 vol
Bid 23¢ · Ask 24¢
Event statistics
How this resolves
One winner.
- Scheduled end
- Oct 23, 2:00 PM ET
- Trading
- Closed
- In review
- Resolved
Rules text
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 22, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 22, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 22, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.